Mining and Energy Sustain Growth as Industry Contracts

Argentina's economy is experiencing an uneven recovery, with energy, mining, agribusiness and select services performing above average, while industry and traditional commerce remain lagging. In this scenario, activity linked to Vaca Muerta and mining development emerge as among the most dynamic sectors in the current growth phase.

Limited Employment in Extractive Sectors

The energy sector and mining require substantial capital investments, though their capacity to generate employment is lower than labor-intensive branches such as industry, construction and commerce. These latter sectors have yet to consolidate sustained improvement in their activity levels.

Industry and Construction in Retreat

July data reflected this disparity. Industrial output fell 5% versus June and 4.9% year-over-year, while construction declined 4.9% month-on-month and 4.55% compared to July 2025. In the first seven months of the year, industry accumulated a decline of 2.6%, while construction showed a gain of 1%.

GDP Projections Revised Downward

Growth projections have also been revised lower. The International Monetary Fund had estimated Argentine GDP expansion of 4% at the start of 2026 and the Government had forecast 5% in the Budget. However, analyst consensus now stands near 2%, with more optimistic estimates up to 2.5%.

The Market Expectations Survey from August calculated growth of 2.1% for 2026, six tenths lower than in the previous survey and below the 3.2% projected in January. For analysts, exports are currently the main driver of activity, while consumption and investment continue showing weakness.

Outlook for 2027

Looking ahead to 2027, economic performance will be conditioned by inflation trends, fiscal balance, reserve accumulation and the electoral cycle. In this context, dollar-denominated credit is flagged as a possible financing source for investments, especially for larger-scale enterprises.