Mining and Energy Among Growth Drivers, Yet Facing Formal Employment Challenges

Mining and energy rank among Argentina's best-performing economic sectors, though their expansion coexists with difficulties in manufacturing, construction, and commerce. Expert discussions also focused on credit, productivity, exchange rates, employment, and foreign currency availability.

Martín Rapetti, executive director of Equilibra, described an economy with differentiated performance. According to his estimates, primary activities, including mining and energy, stand approximately 25 points above mid-2022 levels, while manufacturing and construction have accumulated a contraction exceeding 12% since the second quarter of that year.

Haroldo Montagu, chief economist at Vectorial, questioned the notion of a two-speed economy and noted that some sectors are growing while others are declining, with no signs of spontaneous convergence. In this context, Rapetti calculated that approximately 246,000 formal private sector jobs have been lost since November 2023, with particularly severe impact on manufacturing and construction.

Leandro Mora Alfonsín, executive director of Argencon, identified hydrocarbons and mining as principal potential growth drivers. He argued that the challenge lies in linking these activities with the knowledge economy to develop suppliers, technology, and greater productivity, rather than relying on indirect effects on the broader economy.

The exchange rate represents another key discussion point. Montagu noted that current levels favor sectors with natural advantages, such as agriculture and energy resources, but may complicate manufacturing and services with lower international market access. The central concern is that some productive capabilities may be permanently lost.

Specialists also raised questions about whether energy and mining exports will suffice to cover foreign currency demand associated with imports and debt maturities. This concern relates to the official projection of 4% GDP growth in 2027 and the need to define which sectors could sustain that expansion while simultaneously generating more formal employment.

Based on reporting from La Nación — Economía.