Gold Could Approach USD 4,900 per Ounce by End of 2026

Gold could reach USD 4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, according to a projection by Goldman Sachs. The scenario is supported by central bank demand to diversify reserves and a market that has lowered its expectations for additional U.S. interest rate hikes.

The price showed sharp fluctuations during the year. After reaching USD 5,450 in late January, it fell below USD 3,900 in mid-July, recovered to USD 4,700 in August, and subsequently declined partially. On the Friday covered in the report, it traded around USD 4,380 per ounce.

The investment bank estimates that official purchases will average 50 tonnes per month for the remainder of 2026, compared with 17 tonnes per month recorded before 2022. The strategy gained momentum following the freezing of Russian central bank assets by G7 countries in the context of the invasion of Ukraine.

In this context, monetary authorities are seeking to limit their exposure to foreign currencies amid potential freezes stemming from financial or geopolitical crises. China was the largest identifiable buyer in June, when seasonally adjusted global purchases reached approximately 100 tonnes, compared with 66 tonnes in May.

For Argentina, the metal's performance has a direct impact on foreign trade. Gold generated nearly USD 2.9 billion during the first half of the year and accounted for just over 61% of the USD 4.742 billion exported by the mining sector in that period. However, the growth in export value was linked to prices, as gold and silver production declined.

Demand for call options could also amplify market movements. Goldman Sachs did not fully incorporate this factor in its estimate, and analysts cited in the report noted that the low weight of gold in private portfolios, combined with tensions around Iran and other international flashpoints, could drive further purchases. This scenario could push prices beyond the projection, though with greater volatility both upward and downward.