The 2027 Budget Aims for 4% Growth and Stable Exchange Rate

The 2027 Budget proposal presented by the Government outlines a scenario of robust economic expansion, with GDP growth estimated at 4%. The forecast exceeds projections from most private analysts and is formulated for a year marked by presidential elections.

The official framework contemplates an economy with uneven performance across sectors. Agriculture and energy would be the main drivers, accompanied to a lesser extent by mining, while retail trade, manufacturing, and construction would continue facing challenges.

The activity estimate is also conditioned by the precedent of the 2026 Budget, which had projected 5% growth and ultimately resulted in expansion below 2%. In that context, the assumption for 2027 appears to be one of the project's most demanding targets.

Regarding prices, the Government projects year-over-year inflation of 18%, with a monthly average of 1.4%. The figure falls below market expectations, which estimate a variation close to 20% for next year.

The budget also forecasts an exchange rate of $1,847 per dollar for December 2027, with an adjustment of 15%. The objective is to prevent a currency shock that would impact inflation, especially during an election period.

Public accounts constitute another central pillar. The primary result would reach 1.5% of GDP and the financial result, after debt interest payments, would reach 0.2%. The project also estimates an increase in average wages of 25.4%, with the expectation of strengthening domestic consumption.

Congress must debate these projections and define the distribution of resources among different state agencies. The outcome of that discussion will determine which Executive priorities are incorporated into 2027 budget policy.